Apples’ earnings are being announced today after the bell which are most likely going to blow away estimates. Business Insider wrote about how Apple always lowballs earnings guidance.

Apple is known for dramatically lowballing its profit guidance, and then miraculously blowing out “expectations.”

Since Sept. 2006, Apple has topped its quarterly EPS guidance by an average 41%, and its revenue guidance by an average 9%.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-apples-real-earnings-expectations-2010-10#ixzz12k6KCb1K

Apple is expected to post earnings of $4.08 a share on revenue of $18.9 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

UPDATE: Apple 4Q net income soars 70 percent and earned $4.3 billion, or $4.64 per share.

Markets are primed to pullback from this amazing run up . The SPY pretty much went straight up for almost 4 weeks. It’s having difficulty breaking the $100 mark and down volume is picking up the last 3 days. Time to go short with the SDS.

Same with the QQQQ, it’s ready to pullback having tested the $40 price point and now should go down to test $37. I entered into the QID today.

The broad market went up and closed down on higher volume which means distribution. The SPY looks like a good short or buy the SDS. In yesterday’s post I mentioned I went long the FAZ and ERY which are 3x short financials and 3x short energy. The chart below shows the confirmation of selling on higher volume today in the XLF. Now let’s see if we get volume at the swing low (I circled in red) at $11.10 on more than 193 million shares then were heading down to $10 range for support.

I also liked the action of the Russell 1000 (IWB)  instead of the Russell 2000 (IWM). The chart below shows high volume selling today. Price went above yesterday’s high and close below is on high volume – downtown we go. I will enter into the BGZ in the morning which is the 3x bear of the Russell 1000.

The SPY went up on light volume today and closed below yesterday. Price went into the May 7th big volume down day and 317 million versus 205 million. There is no buying volume. Market is coming down.

XLE (Energy ETF) also confirmed that we are coming down. Price went into Feb 10 massive down day with 56 million and we went up today on 16 million. Which way is the buying pressure? Heading down. I entered DUG (2x Short Entergy) and ERY (3x Short Energy) today.

Dug should test $22. ERY should head up to $35.

Also financial look very weak and I entered into FAZ which should head up to $10.

The price and volume on Friday was not very eventful which means uncertainty in the market direction. I still think that we are due for a pull back going up 8 weeks and down only once. I am still short ACM, EDU, BIDU and have a few bear positions in QID, TYP but I also went long in two solar plays CSUN and TAN I bought on Friday.

CSUN chart is looking very strong as price comes down the volume dries up then on Friday it really dried up. I bought at $3.13. First target is 4.00, then $4.50.

I also looked at the overall solar stocks like FSLR, SOLF, CSIQ, STP and TAN (solar ETF). Solar sector looks good but CSUN looked better. I bought some TAN at $8.60 but I might be a bit early as it might pull back to $7.50-8.00.

Overall market still wants to pullback I think we will continue into option expiration tomorrow. See the QQQQ chart below which shows accelerated down volume yesterday – wants to go lower to next support. I’m still in short ETFs like QID, TZA, TWM.

I went short EDU, BIDU and ACM this morning.

What a great run up in the overall market making big gains but the QQQQ which was the strongest index is showing weakness. The chart below shows big profit taking last Thursday with 216 million versus 183 million up on Friday. Which way is the price going? Down. I think we are going to pull back starting Tuesday and the QQQQ will retest $30-31. I am in the QID which is the 2x Short the QQQQ.

Also look at the XLK (Tech Spider)which showed huge selling pressure on Thursday. This wants to retest $14-15.

The broad market in the SPY also showed weakness but it was heald up buy the finacials and energy sectors. The QQQQ is the weakest sector.

As I posted today on Twitter I sold WYNN, ESLR and LVS and bought DXD and TZA. I took profits and put them in to some 2x short ETFs.

Below is the SPY which shows the pullback today on slightly higher volume than Friday. We should pull back into 81-82 and if the volume is around 250 million than I would buy long. For now I am short the market.

Below is DXD (2x Short the DIA) which I got in at $54.25. First target is $59-61.

Check out the video below.

I am still holding on a core position in DRYS which I took partial profits on March 27. On Friday it popped big time up +29% in one day. GNK also in the shipping business up +16%. DRYS is on it’s way up to $17 with little resistance with the huge sign on strength on Friday.

SPY has shown great strength during this short covering rally. I suspect we should pull back this week to around $82-83 where you can buy more if the volume is light. Then SPY will head up to $92.