Posted on March 24th, 2009 in Long Trade | Comments Off
The market is pulling back in an orderly manner which is to be expected in a bullish move. This is what I look for.
The URE pulled back more than I would have liked but it did so on lighter volume. Below is the IYR which is iShare Real estate index which the URE is based on. As you can see today we tested the high volume day on March 10. We went lower into that price range and closed above it which is bullish. URE is heading higher staying in the trade.

My FEED trade I entered yesterday acted great today reaching a high of +19% where I took some profits and raised my stop higher.

The market had one of it’s most powerful up moves in many months with 6-7% gains in the broad market. The SPY had a 7.18% move forming a V-shape bounce. It’s too late to buy into the SPY for a trade and I’d like to see this pull back to $76-78 but first it might run up to 87. The risk to reward is not there yet – be patient.

Today I did enter FEED and ANR which are both commodity stocks. ANR has been consolidating for 4 months with a little sign of strength Feb 2 and March 19. Target price of $24-26.

I have been following the crazy ride of the TLT ( iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond) and it’s so way over bought. This article on Bloomberg also talked about “Time to sell Treasuries“. I thus entered into the TBT which is an inverse ETF of the TLT. As you can see from this chart of the TLT there is heavy down volume pressure on Jan 5. On Friday we just missed the high of the Jan 5 by $0.07 and closed to the downside. If we move down on more than 4 million shares and can break the $111 price we are fall further to $103 range.

I entered into the TBT on Thursday and have my stop just below the day low of $38.41. This should go to $42.96 first then…..up to $50 if the bond does breakdown.

I am still bullish on gold going higher into February as the US Dollar weakens. I am long AZK, ANR, DGP, AUY, GBG, GG.
Also bought on Friday for a quick play on TNA (Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) it is basically 3x leverage on the Russell 2000 which is use the IWM for the proxy. It was good to see another trader that I follow at Buying on the Dip also call this trade for TNA…….up up up we go to $40.
